I generally ask myself at this time of year what were the biggest stories of the past twelve months in business/financial news. Of course, I choose the ones I do largely because they illustrate an important theme, and in the list below I'll spell out and boldface the theme. Yet the theme itself isn't the story. In terms of regional mix, with this line-up I've one whole-Pacific-basin story (March). One story is Australian (December), two European (January and June), one Chinese (May) and one Middle Eastern (July), The remaining six are US based (February, April, August, September, October, November). A nice thematic point: I both begin and end with issues over different currencies both traditional and innovative. January: Currency wars I: Switzerland abandons a peg of the franc to the euro (at 1:1.20) that has lasted for more than three years. The suddenness of the abandonment takes many market participants by surprise. February: Economics of crude oil ...
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I'm getting pretty tired of these ads telling people to keep checking their credit score, aren't you, dear reader? Credit score hyper-consciousness seems unhealthy both economically and psychologically. It all sounds a bit like a message from a certain brand of 1950s sci-fi movie. "Keep watching the skies!" The idea that humans should keep watching the skies (for UFOs and such) was code for the real-world anxiety that Americans had to keep watching the skies for Russian bombers or, as time rolled on and the anxieties became updated, for Russian missiles. If you keep watching the skies, you may know when to "duck and cover," which will be really useful. Or ... not. And continued checking of an online service to stay up on your credit score? ... not all that useful for most people with most lifestyles most of the time.
Bring me flesh and bring me wine Bring me pine logs hither Thou and I will see him dine When we bear him thither." Page and monarch forth they went Forth they went together Through the rude wind's wild lament And the bitter weather "Sire, the night is darker now And the wind blows stronger Fails my heart, I know not how, I can go no longer." "Mark my footsteps, my good page Tread thou in them boldly Thou shalt find the winter's rage Freeze thy blood less coldly." In his master's steps he trod Where the snow lay dinted Heat was in the very sod Which the Saint had printed Therefore, Christian men, be sure Wealth or rank possessing Ye who now will bless the poor Shall yourselves find blessing
For the Catholic Church, the day after Christmas, tomorrow, is known as the Feast of Stephen. Lovers of Christmas Carols will remember that this is the feast commemorated in Good King Wenceslaus , for the 26th of December was the day when that monarch looked out upon the snow that was "deep and crisp and even." Here, just for the heck of it, are the lyrics to the first two verses of that Carol. Good King Wenceslas looked out On the feast of Stephen. When the snow lay round aout Deep and crisp and even. Brightly shone the moon that night Though the frost was cruel, When a poor man came in sight Gath'ring winter fuel. Hither page and stand by me, If thou know'st, telling. Yonder peasant, who is he? Where and what his dwelling? "Sire, he lives a good league hence Underneath the mountain, Right against the forest fence By Saint Agnes' fountain." Maybe I'll finish this up tomorrow, which will of course be the day of the aforementio...
A phrase I only recently encountered, but one which illustrates the idea of logical necessity very well: There can be no dent without a surface.
In a philosophy group to which I belong, a fellow calling himself Barleycorn posted the following thought: People like to think of the universe as some magical godly force of creation but really it's just the earth that houses life. The universe for the most part is death. Put anything living up in space and the universe instantly kills it. The universe is not your loving friend. This little bubble on earth called an atmosphere is the only thing stopping the universe from instantly murdering you. So why all the memes about the magical mystical universe and all this spirit science crap? And why do so many people feel like the universe will absorb or save your soul at death. No it won't. That's a very romantic idealistic view of the universe. Life struggles AGAINST the universe. My reply was, and is, as follows: First, the "little bubble" of life on earth is only possible because of a continuous stream of energy from the nearest star, and because we are held...
I claim no originality for this, but the question of the actual source isn't really worth investigating. There once was a man who said "Damn! I'm sad that I know that I am A lifetime of acts On determinist tracks: Not even a bus, I'm a tram."
I've recently read Galen Strawson's 2011 book, THE EVIDENT CONNEXION: HUME ON PERSONAL IDENTITY. It is a follow-up of sorts to his book on Hume's theory of causation, which I discussed in a series of posts last January. Hume believed himself to have been defeated in his efforts to explain personal identity. He says so pretty clearly in an APPENDIX he added in 1740 to his TREATISE ON HUMAN NATURE, though one of Strawson's point is that many other scholars don't seem to have realized how complete the confession of failure here is. Here is Hume. I had entertain’d some hopes, that however deficient our theory of the intellectual world might be, it wou’d be free from those contradictions, and absurdities, which seem to attend every explication, that human reason can give of the material world. But upon a more strict review of the section concerning personal identity , I find myself involv’d in such a labyrinth, that, I must confess, I neither know how to correc...
I received an annual report from a money market fund recently. It includes a Q-and-A with two portfolio managers: Joanne M. Driscoll and Jonathan M. Topper. I'll pass along a bit of their wisdom here. The first question is, "Please describe the market environment for the 12-month reporting period ended September 30, 2015?" They respond in part thus: "The steep decline in commodity prices was especially noteworthy as low oil prices have eased inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy -- keeping inflation well below the Fed's 2% target for price stability. ... the central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at its main policy making committee meeting in July, but added that it expected to begin raising short-term rates before the end of 2015. At their September meeting, Fed policymakers delayed raising the key short-term interest rate, citing weaker macroeconomic conditions abroad and the heightened market volatility brought on by the People's Ban...
Someone on yahoo!answers indicated recently that he is preparing to take part in some sort of debate of fatalism versus free will. He wants to take the "free will side" and he wants to know what argument he has to be most prepared to meet and how he might meet it. I'm happy that inquiring minds want to know. Here's how I responded. --------------------- Let us conceive of "free will" in "incompatibilist" fashion. The basic idea is that the necessity of my actions is logically incompatible with responsibility for credit or blame --- if I robbed the bank from causes that were already implicit a second after the Big Bang, then I could not have done otherwise and am not responsible, in an intuitively powerful sense, for robbing the bank. So, we WANT to believe in free will (indeterminism) because it will make sense out of what we're going to do anyway -- punish bank robbers. That isn't yet an argument in its favor. But you can create...