Thinking about Virginia and the Governor's race this year

Virginia always provides a test for a new President. Indeed, Virginia's Governorship may not run for a second term -- so there is never an incumbent advantage. As a consequence the race for the post often has a fascinatingly hot contest the year after the election of a new President to work out of the Oval office right across the river.

In 2005, a year after the clear victory of George W. Bush's re-election campaign (so much clearer than the way W ended up with his first term -- but we will speak naught of that) -- Democrat Tim Kaine (pictured) won the Governor's seat in Richmond.

In 2004, W had received 53.68% of the popular vote in the state, while Dem. John Kerry received just 45.48%. Kaine's victory a year later indicated the political tides were shifting, and that Bush's post-9/11 momentum was spent.

Likewise, in 2021, a year after the victory of Joseph Biden over Donald Trump, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the Virginia gubernatorial contest. That was an early indication of trouble for Biden. Today, Tuesday, September 9, there is a special election in the state. Given the death of Gerry Connolly, the voters of the 11th congressional district are choosing his successor. With the nano-metric majority to which Speaker Johnson clings, every seat is a critical seat.This year? Abigail Spanberger is the Dem nominee and Winsome Earle Sears in the Republican nominee. They'll have at it on November 4th. I have to hope Spanberger will be the unambiguous winner by the time Guy Fawke's day begins.

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