There are lots of cognitive biases in the world. Here are four -- from a list I discovered in some random web surfing. But re-written in my own style.
Group Think. Also known as "communal reinforcement." Members of your echo chamber may constantly reassure one another that X is the case So of course you are certain, living in that echo chamber, that X is the case.
I believe I once in this blog told a pertinent anecdote about the Japanese decision to expand the war in 1941. All of Hirohito's advisors were of the opinion that this was the right and necessary thing to do. From the Aleutians to Hawaii to Hong Kong to the Philippines -- go on the offensive throughout the Pacific. Hirohito himself had his doubts, but in the end even he, quasi-god or not, thought it necessary to stifle them and accept the hive mind's view.
Availability Cascade. In science this is also called a research bubble. There has been some intriguing work done in special field X. Suddenly, people in adjoining specialties are talking about X What people are talking about seems more interesting, draws further work and papers, good bad or still-to-be-checked. This draws more talk, and of course what people are talking even more about is even more interesting....
Defending a Sunk Cost. Or, "post-purchase rationalization." I've already expended money/time on X. So it can't be the case that X is wrong, pointless, misguided, etc. I'll come up with reasons in support of X or to reject contrary evidence, no matter how "evident."
Wishful Thinking. Or, "motivated reasoning." Or "giving one's self a pep talk." Or "believing one's own hype."
"Fortunately, I don't have to avoid this, or the other biases, because I am a hyper-rational creature above all of this."
Wait no. That last one isn't an example! It happens to be true.
Christopher, is the availability cascade really a cognitive bias, as opposed to what we might call an "interest bias"? Your description of it does not suggest that the people who study X see it differently because of their interest in it.
ReplyDeleteIt is a cognitive bias, that begins with a heuristic. Our minds work through various shortcuts, one of which is that our judgments are based on the most recent information. Insofar as our judgments lead to actions that strike other people as (recent) information, and their actions do likewise, this creates a feedback loop, or cascade.
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