A referendum in Ecuador

There was a referendum in Ecuador over the weekend.

President Daniel Noboa, who is generally regarded as friendly to foreign investors, wanted the referendum to set the stage for new constitutional deliberations.

I won't discuss here want kind of new constitution he wants. I'll only say that potential investors -- buyers of Ecuador's bonds or of stakes in its corporations, etc., have expressed ambivalence about the result of the vote, and something slightly darker than ambivalence about Noboa's plans for a constitutional convention.

In general, they think, a "yes" vote would enhance Noboa's political capital. That would be good. On the other hand: why does he have to want THIS? A convention in 2026 could prove unpredictable and, so, definitionally, risky.

Who knows but that populist opposition to Noboa, and to the aforesaid investors, could sway whatever deliberative body is actually convened?

A recent report from Gramercy, an influential investment advisor that specializes in emerging-market related advice, says that it “will be monitoring developments closely for signs that the populist opposition which has been in disarray … could be regaining political influence.”

Good news and bad news, for readers of Gramercy reports. The good news is they don't have to worry about the convention -- the "no" votes won the referendum so it won't happen.

The bad news is they do have to worry about a rising populist tide of not-so-investor-friendly folks who until now have in fact been in disarray. The populists organized effectively for that no vote: they are no longer in quite so much disarray.

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