What have been the biggest stories in business/financial news over the last year? Quite synchronistic of you to ask: I was just about to address the point.
January: Health Tech. A Breakthrough that Wasn't. Elizabeth Holmes found guilty on the investors-oriented counts of the indictment against her over Theranos. One consequence of the Theranos scandal worth observing: it has made fund raising more difficult for genuine health tech innovators. Holmes would be sentenced to 11 years and 3 months. After a separate trial, the Theranos COO Sunny Bulwani would receive an even harsher sentence: 12 years and 11 months, in December.
February: Ukraine War I. Sanctions. Putin launches what he calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine. The consequences of this war were to roll through the world trade and financial systems all year, including but not limited to the sanctions imposed upon Russia by third-party nations.
March: Ukraine War II. Google. Russia demands that Google stop showing "false political information" about Ukraine which, they claim, is misinforming the Russian public. Meanwhile, a Russian attempt to create a home-court alternative to Alphabet/Google fizzles.
April: Elon Musk. At the beginning of the month, it becomes public that Elon Musk has bought into a significant share of Twitter. By mid-month, he is offering $43 billion for 100% of the equity so he can take it private. By the end of the month, a deal had been cut. In July, Musk will pull out. In October, he would push himself back in. By the end of that month the deal will close. At this writing, the consequences of that remain unclear.
May: Crisis in Cryptoworld. Certain prominent "stablecoins" prove undeserving that name. This begins a crisis in cryptoworld. It is not yet clear how far the crisis will spread. Crypto meltdown deepens as stablecoin Tether drops below dollar peg | Reuters Further reverberations later in the year include the collapse of FTX and the imprisonment of Sam Bankman-Fried.
June: Inflation. U.S. numbers on the subject of inflation are authoritatively described as "catastrophically bad." Fed reacts with the biggest rate hike since 1994. Inflation becomes THE issue for Republicans in the midterm (aside from crazy "decertification" stuff.)
July: Ukraine War III. Grain. Much of the world seems to have woken up this month to the big place that Ukraine has long played in the world's grain markets, and the striking effect the war has had as a consequence. The month saw difficult negotiations with third parties working with both Russians and Ukrainians over allowing passage for export vessels. (After weeks of suspense, early in the morning of the first day of August. local time, a ship finally left the Odesa port laden with grain bound for Lebanon. In October, though, Russia resumed using hunger and high food prices as weapons of war.)
August: Sunny Infrastructure. Democrats herd through U.S. Congress the "Inflation Reduction Act," a scaled-down version of last year's "Build Back Better" proposal. Much might be said about it, but I will limit myself here to one point: it targeted $60 billion for renewable energy infrastructure, which includes such things as the manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines. I still wonder what is the case that these things are valuable enough to warrant this assistance but aren't valuable enough to draw their own profit-seeking investors-by-choice.
September: Ukraine War IV. Oil and Gas. Opening days of the month are taken up with threats over Nord Stream. Officially its operation ceased "for maintenance." The western allies of Ukraine want it re-opened. Putin purportedly also wants it re-opened, but without any price cap. The west is at this writing insisting on a price cap, for both anti-inflation and pro-sanctions reasons, and the gas is not flowing. One can hardly expect Russia to cooperate with sanctions against ... Russia. The west will have to learn to live without those hydrocarbons. Indeed, the month ends with reports of suboceanic sabotage of Nord Stream.
October: Green Tech. The trial of Trevor Milton over the failure of Nikola. Makes a nice compare-and-contrast with January's story. Milton is convicted, as was Holmes. Milton, though, was the head of a company that had successfully gone public before the shit hit the fan. Also (perhaps this is related) Milton's trial apparently has NOT had a freezing effect on investment in its sector.
November: Ukraine War V. Regional fall-out. There are lots of war stories this month, many of them with a business/finance aspect. One in particular piqued my interest. Georgia may prove an unintended beneficiary of the war. Young men of means, fleeing Putin's draft, are arriving in Georgia in the numbers, and with the spending money, necessary to create an economic boom not far from the carnage. At least 112,000 Russians have emigrated to Georgia this year. They have in fact created such a boom.
December: Recession. As the year nears its end, concern is growing about how thoroughly the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation measures could stunt growth. All the old cliches are in play. Can they thread the needle? Can they produce a soft landing? Are they trying to push on a string? The Board met on December 14, and again raised interest rates but somewhat dialed back the speed at which it has been doing so.
Happy new year.
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