From the Titelbaum book on Bayesian epistemology I have mentioned here before. There is a nice explanation in a footnote near the end about "observation selection bias" as a ubiquitous problem in statistics and, really, in the understanding of probability. The explanation is illustrated with a World War II throwback. US War Department statisticians observed in 1943 that bombers returning to London from their flights over occupied Europe generally had more bullet holes in their fuselage than in their engine. Somebody drew the conclusion that the German fire tended to hit the fuselage, and that there should be extra plating there. Such a reinforcement of the fuselage was not a decision to be taken lightly. Reinforcement adds weight. Heavier aircraft are less maneuverable, have a lesser range, etc. So Abraham Wald, a Hungarian Jew known before the war for econometrics research, who at this point was working at Columbia with the Statistical Research Group, consulting with th
Diane and I were talking recently about how the incumbent President, Joseph Biden, has seemed to do relatively little campaigning for his Vice President, Kamala Harris. We both agree on that observation, but we had different interpretations. My initial thought was, "Maybe Joe is grumpy. Yes, he has supported her and done everything he had to as a party guy, but he was dumped over and may be ticked off." Diane thought this must be wrong. The reason is more likely not that he is grumpy about campaigning but that she and her team have decided he is more a liability than an asset on the trail. Whatever. Looking at this from a broader PoV. Harris is in a familiar position in US presidential history. She cannot seem to be disloyal to the incumbent president whose mantle she has inherited -- nor can she present herself as a mere acolyte. She has to be both her own woman and a loyal party gal. It is easy to get this wrong. George H.W. Bush annoyed a number of Reagan admirer