Jamesian Philosophy Refreshed

As we discussed yesterday, if a nation's central bank lowers its interest rates, the usual expectation is that it will weaken its currency. Part of the reason why: it will set up a carry trade, in which profiteers will borrow money at its low rates, then exchange that currency for another currency, that issued by a higher-interest rate country, so these profiteers (I use the term without animus -- it simply means "those seeking a profit") can lend out for a higher rate than the one at which they are borrowing, pocketing the difference. This activity, given supply/demand principles predictably weakens the currency the profiteers are leaving and strengthens that into which they're moving. This brings us back to the mystery with which we began. Australia and New Zealand have both recently lowered interest rates. In each case, though, that has corresponded to a strengthening of the currency. Back in late May, you would have needed 1.39 Aussie dollars to buy a US do...

I'm not sure I understand this, or agree with Bloomberg's analysis, but I'll put it in here anyway. An Aug. 15th Bloomberg story, by Vincent Cignarella (portrayed above), starts with this: The central banks of Australia and New Zealand each recently lowered their benchmark interest rate. According to conventional wisdom, this should have weakened their respective currencies, giving their business a stimulative shot in the arm when functioning as exporters. But that didn't happen. Rather, the lowered interest rates resulted in ... stronger currencies. What's going on? If you don't understand why that result is counter-intuitive, you might want to take a step back, Consider a common FX trader's trick known as the "carry trade." The idea is: borrow money in the currency of a country where interest rates are low, then trade it for the currency of another country where interest rates are high, and lend the money out there. You're buying cred...