Jamesian Philosophy Refreshed

Last Sunday I made some fatuous comments about the NCAA basketball tournament in an effort to illustrate the statistical concept of regression to the mean. I did so by inventing a basketball concept of regression to the chalk. As a discussion of the statistical point, that post holds up. As a discussion of the NCAA tournament, I am afraid it already looks pathetic. when I made out my own brackets, as the tournament was getting underway, I ended up with a final four of Syracuse, Iowa State, Arizona, and Michigan. You can judge my b-ball predicting prowess from the fact that not one of those teams is in the final four. The actual line-up is: Florida, Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Kentucky. That's not so embarrassing, really. what is worse is that the results thus far conspicuously fail to illustrate the idea of regression to the mean/chalk. The "regression" should certainly have eliminated the Wildcats and Huskies by now, if it were a fact. As the musical version of...

Did you fill out a bracket this year for the NCAA tournament, dear reader? I did. I'll report the following three points about the experience: I wasn't even close to winning the billion dollars; I didn't try to predict any of the "first round" games; and I've decided that tournament results exhibit a definite pattern, which I have come to think of as "regression to the chalk." The first of those three points needs no particular explanation. As to the first round, I'll offer this. I am still sentimentally attached to the idea of a 64-team field. Nowadays, though, the Powers that Be have mandated that 68 teams be involved. So they have four "first round" games on Tuesday and Wednesday of the first week of the tournament to eliminate four of those 68. By Thursday morning, we're back to a 64 team field, and that is the best time to fill out the form, IMHO. The "second round" is exactly what the first round was in d...

I was thinking of writing here something about the now-concluded college basketball season. But since Great Britain's former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher passed away recently I've changed my mind. I think the best tribute I can do Thatcher is to continue my recent discussions of some considerations pertaining to market economies. I'm told that was something of an interest of hers. Besides, I didn't have anything especially incisive to say about basketball. Today's question, then: First: what IS a stock option? It is either an option to buy (call) a stock or an option to sell (put) a stock. An option to buy a stock is a contract by which the buyer acquires the right (without incurring any obligation) to purchase shares of a stock at a specific price on a specified date.   An option to sell is much the same, except as you might already have inferred, the buyer of an option to sell acquires the right (again, without obligation) to sell shares of a...