Oops: More on March Madness

Last Sunday I made some fatuous comments about the NCAA basketball tournament in an effort to illustrate the statistical concept of regression to the mean. I did so by inventing a basketball concept of regression to the chalk.

As a discussion of the statistical point, that post holds up. As a discussion of the NCAA tournament, I am afraid it already looks pathetic.

when I made out my own brackets, as the tournament was getting underway, I ended up with a final four of Syracuse, Iowa State, Arizona, and Michigan. You can judge my b-ball predicting prowess from the fact that not one of those teams is in the final four. The actual line-up is: Florida, Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Kentucky.

That's not so embarrassing, really. what is worse is that the results thus far conspicuously fail to illustrate the idea of regression to the mean/chalk. The "regression" should certainly have eliminated the Wildcats and Huskies by now, if it were a fact.

As the musical version of a Dickens character once sang, "I think I'll have to think it out again."

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