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Smooth Transfer of Power in Honduras

  Last time I mentioned the election in Honduras I said that Xiomara Castro had won, but that her victory might well be contested. I have proved too pessimistic. The National Party has in fact conceded the election results and stepped aside. Castro will be sworn in on January 27.  Ah, I remember when things worked that smoothly in transfers of power in The United States. Where will things go now? Well ... the new President is a professed socialist, but I suspect that is mostly a matter of the marketing power of that label. [Yes, I know, it's marketing power in the US still seems negative outside of Vermont. Honduras is a different place, folks.]  What we know is that she has demanded a new deal from the International Monetary Fund in terms of her country's debt. I can hardly blame her and I have to observe that she doesn't have a great hand to play there. The IMF is simply a surrogate for global bond markets, and they are a stronger force than any momentum generated by an...

The Significance of the Vote in Honduras

 On November 28 the people of Honduras voted. They appear to have voted for  Xiomara Castro, of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE), as their new President.  The election may well be stolen. We may soon find that the ruling party has manufactured enough votes to keep itself in power. Then there will arise the question of what, if anything, the Biden administration can do about that. But the margins of victory seems to be large, so the creation of later 'found' votes will have to be on a big scale.   There were three significant candidates for the office. In addition to Xiomara Castro, there was Nasry Asfura, the candidate of the ruling National Party and the mayor of the capital city, and Yani Rosenthal, of the Liberals. The nominees had each been chosen by party primaries in March. There is a fourth major party, known as the Savior Party, but its candidate, Salvador Nasralla, withdrew on October 13 to become Castro’s running mate. The Castro-Nasralla was...