There's an old story about Ernest Hemingway. Faced with a bad case of writer's block he overcame it by telling himself, when faced with the dreaded blank page, to begin by writing something simple and true. I often remind myself of this, especially when faced with the difficulty of writing about a complicated subject. When complexity IS the block, start with something simple and true. Not long ago, for my monthly newsletter, the first issue of the new year 2026, I had given myself the challenge of writing a brief item about artificial intelligence. Then I froze. I'm not an expert on the field. I know of coding only what a late 1970s course on APL could teach me. [If you really ARE into computer science, you're giggling at that sentence.) So I started with this sort of intentional simplicity. "The year 2025 may go down in history with a lot of labels." It may indeed. Getting just a little braver having taken that step, I continued, "But I, for one, w...
And this could be big... in a bad way. Most adults remember the period 2007-08. The great global financial crisis of those years arose because mortgages and mortgage derivatives were the horse that the whole of the developed world's economies rode upon. That horse was over-loaded and in due course it died. What is the horse now? On some accounts, a certain sort of software firm, one in the business of selling "software as a service", or SaaS for short, has taken on that role. Equities in these companies, the "app" economy if you will, are the new mortgages. Loans to those companies are the new mortgage derivatives. It is all, again, an overburdened horse. But what will general artificial intelligence (GAI) do to them? Could its very generality make most of the specific apps that are so important today seem obsolete and pointless? How much wealth will be destroyed if that is the case? Do we face a SaaSpocalypse? The St Louis ba...