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Showing posts with the label Irene Aldridge

Risk-return tradeoff and the U.S. treasury

In our last post devoted to the mathematics of finance, we mentioned that the standard deviation of a bell curve showing the range of possible returns from an asset can be employed as a surrogate for its risk. I'd like to pursue that point a bit. It is the chanciest corporations,  the ones that do have significant risk, that have to bribe you into buying their bonds with a higher return than their safer brethren need offer: thus, a trade-off. One way of looking at the trade-off is this: suppose I come into your neighborhood and offer to play a simple game. You will roll a pair of dice I provide and I will give you $1,000 times the number shown on the dice when they come to rest. I require only that you pay me $1,000 before we begin. The lowest possible score is 2, so the lowest possible pay-out is twice what you’ll pay me up front. This, then, (if I am honest and actually have the money I’m offering to pay) is a can’t-lose proposition for you. The worst outcome is ...