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Showing posts with the label fallacies

Thoughts About Plausible Deniability

A number of common fallacies in reasoning have a common property. They help us deny to ourselves the idea that we are responsible for harm to others. For example, there is a logically fallacious bias in favor of inaction. "I didn't do anything" seems to most of us, on some level, to imply "I did nothing wrong" and this seems to imply "I'm not in the wrong." There is also a fallacious bias in favor of non-contact. We tend to think the "trigger man" more responsible for a murderer than whoever hired him. The employer presumably was somewhere far away, which is exculpatory in some sense. Further, that is key to an explanation for the prevalence of these fallacies offered by evolutionary psychologists. Human beings evolved to live in small groups. There was a lot of potential for violence between the groups, but selection pressures must have strongly favored the gene lines of those in groups with a lot of cohesion. Groups where confo...

Motte and Bailey

A common fallacious form of argument is that known as the "motte and bailey," also sometimes called the "bait and switch," though the archaic term "motte and bailey" is more evocative for those of us who aren't engaged either in retailing products or in fishing as a regular matter. The term "motte" suggests a strong defensive position (not to be confused with a "moat," though obviously related -- we'll get to that). The motte is the raised earthwork in front of a castle. It may have a wooden palisade on its crest. The "bailey" is a pleasant and less militarized zone, perhaps a courtyard or market, outside of the protection of the motte.  A moat, or perhaps a dry ditch, might exist protecting the whole motte-and-bailey complex. The idea is that the whole complex is defensible against small numbers of foes. But against a larger more determined attack, when a raid becomes a battle, the bailey might have to be aban...

Some Cognitive Biases

There are lots of cognitive biases in the world. Here are four -- from a list I discovered in some random web surfing. But re-written in my own style.  Group Think. Also known as "communal reinforcement." Members of your echo chamber may constantly reassure one another that X is the case So of course you are certain, living in that echo chamber, that X is the case.   I believe I once in this blog told a pertinent anecdote about the Japanese decision to expand the war in 1941. All of Hirohito's advisors were of the opinion that this was the right and necessary thing to do. From the Aleutians to Hawaii to Hong Kong to the Philippines  -- go on the offensive throughout the Pacific. Hirohito  himself had his doubts, but in the end even he, quasi-god or not, thought it necessary to stifle them and accept the hive mind's view. Availability Cascade.   In science this is also called a research bubble. There has been some intriguing work done in special field X....