The Big Senate Races

There are ten Big Senate Races this year. That is, there are four races in which the Democrats have a seat and a plausible shot at losing it, and there are six races in which Republicans are in the same position.

I believe it is now likely that, whatever happens in the House of Representatives in November, in the U.S. Senate the Democrats will retain at least 50 votes.

In large part this is due to the personal failings of Mar-a-Lago's favorite obese golfer. The former President has been making endorsements (and dis-endorsements) on the basis of spite, not on the basis of any policy platform other than a magical decertification of an election two years ago. And not on the basis of any coherent plan to get the Republican numbers up. He is ruining Mitch McConnell's prospects of becoming majority leader again and don't the two members of THAT lovely couple deserve each other?

Anyway, the ten races everyone is watching with regard to the Senate are these (alphabetically ordered by state name):

1. Arizona incumbent Mark Kelly (D) is running for re-election here -- anti-alien sentiment is high and helps Republicans, but the GOP is so deeply split and mutually antagonistic Kelly will probably slip through for another term.

2. Florida -- incumbent Marco Rubio (R) is running -- but the Democratic candidate Val Demings could give him a real run.

3. Georgia -- incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) has the Dem field to himself while the Republicans engage in a fratricidal primary. Warnock is using the time to fill his war chest for the fall.

4. Missouri -- incumbent Roy Blunt (R) is retiring. Republicans are worried that former criminal -- uh, current criminal, former Gov. Eric Greitens will get their nomination and hand the seat to the Dems.

5. Nevada -- Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is running for re-election. Biden won this state but in a squeaker. The Republicans are vulnerable on the abortion issue -- Nevada's population strongly favors its legality, Rep. nominee presumptive, Adam Laxalt, opposes same, and if the Supreme Court makes news on this subject this spring that will help Cortez Masto.

6. New Hampshire -- Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) seemed very vulnerable when it seemed likely that Gov. Sununu, heir to a weighty family name, was going to get into the race on the Republican side. But he has decided to run for reelection as Gov instead. Republicans will have to settle for someone less formidable. And abortion matters very much in the equation here, as well.

7. North Carolina -- The incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) is retiring. This could be a Dem pickup. But they haven't settled on a candidate yet and they'll have to be careful to avoid a disqualifying bloodbath.

8. Ohio -- Another Republican Senator retiring -- Rob Portman. The Republicans will probably end up rallying around the "Hillbilly Elegy" guy, but it seems unlikely he'll have the necessary weight in Nov. Keep writing those elegies, tho, bro.

9. Pennsylvania -- another Republican incumbent retiring -- Sen. Pat Toomey. It is a "purple" state, but Biden carried it in 2020 and this could be a pickup. On the other hand, Dems may be a long time and a lot of money spent settling on their nominee yet. So maybe not.

10. Wisconsin -- this involves a Republican incumbent who may or may not be returning. He is Ron Johnson and nobody is sure. The Wisconsin Republicans have no bench to speak of, so if Johnson doesn't run this should be a Dem. pick-up. If he does, it could still be a Dem. pickup although that will be tougher.

My best guesses are as follows. The Democrats will gain three of the seats listed now held by Republicans. Missouri, Carolina, Ohio. The Republicans will gain one now held by a Democrat -- though I don't know which it will be, I will allow for one to be (excuse the term) conservative. Georgia OR New Hampshire. This means Dems will net gain two.

A Story About Coleridge

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Jamesian Philosophy Refreshed

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