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Taiwan and the US Election II

 

As you may see from the news stories to which I linked you yesterday: the former President is open about the fact that he would not use US forces to protect Taiwan from an invasion from the Chinese mainland.

He has allowed for the possibility that Taiwan could pay the US enough to change his mind: but I doubt that deal would ever get done.  The business of lending out an army for mercenary use didn't end well for Yevgeny Prigozhin. [In case you have forgotten the name, you'll probably remember the face, here.] 

One fascinating fact about this situation: Taiwan is the center


of the world's semiconductor industry. Somewhere at the back of the Orange Guy's alleged mind is the thought, "If the PRC takes them over, the fighting will likely destroy their semiconductor industry, allowing the US to re-assert its dominance in that matter." 

That is insane, but no more so that his babbling about sharks. 

Anyway, there are lots of industries in the United States that have long-established relations with the Taiwanese industry.  It is a critical part of their supply ecosystem. I speak in particular not only of computer manufacturers but of all those industries that work within what is called the "Internet of Things." They are surely worried about a trashing of that island by an invasion. They are also surely aware that the removal of the deterrent force of implicit US support of Taiwan makes such a trashing very likely.

So ... what will happen?  First, surely, the affected industries will contribute to a gung ho effort to create a Harris presidency. 

If, God forbid, Trump does win in November [and I want to make it clear if it is not already that this semiconductor issue is NOT the main, or one of the top ten, reasons why I ask God to forbid that result], we can expect that the industries involved will seek to buy him. I am not disposed to think Trump immune to such an agreement. 

How would it work? "We will pay you to pretend to be ready to commit US forces to the defense of Taiwan in order to restore the deterrent effect. We want to know your price." "Do I have to sound convincing?" "As convincing as when you say that TikTok is a menace, or that it is a wonderful thing, depending on who is paying." "What kind of whore do you think I am?" "We've already established that.  Now we are just dickering about price."   

They ought to be careful in the negotiations though.  Not because Trump is the master of the art of the deal that he thinks he is but just because history shows politicians who get bought don't always stay bought.     

     

Comments

  1. I am not entirely sure the Taiwan issue is significant. Relevant, yes, significant, no. With all the lies, obfuscations and other distractions, Taiwan is unimportant now. I might say the same for other current foreign policy issues. But, I won't ...yet. It may depend on whether these matters are seized upon by the election provocateurs. If not, they will be *noise*, not, *signal*. All are historical matters. Item: JD Vance, Donald Trump,and Kamala Harris are not quite history yet. They may, however, soon be. Soyez sage, mes amis...soyez sage.

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