As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago now, in the course of "Money Week," one of Keynes' signature ideas is the liquidity trap: business slows to a crawl when everyone becomes a hoarder. No one wants to lend, or keep their money in the care of institutions that lend, and the interest rates cannot get low enough to correct this situation in supply/demand terms.
Do we believe in this idea, dear reader?
The standard free-marketer's response to talk of a liquidity trap is that it is nonsense. It is based on the idea that there can be a sharp increase in demand for money that is NOT an increase in the demand for goods. Everybody becomes a hoarder. But why? Because everybody becomes attached to the medium of exchange, at the expense of the actual exchange? That sounds like a personal pathology, unlikely to be common enough to have macroeconomic effects.
Most people realize that money is a medium of exchange. It is valuable BECAUSE it buys goods and services. It is not valuable as an alternative to goods and services.
So when Keynesians see a depression and say "there must be a liquidity trap here," Austrians see the same depression and say, "there must be some problem here, but Keynesians ideas go no distance to explaining what it is."
At this point we could naturally seg into a discussion of "Say's Law," and the arguments pro and con. But I'll leave you to look up that expression yourselves. That is the founder of said law, Jean-Baptiste Say, portrayed above.
Hmmmm. Seems there is a quest for cause-and-effect explanation,
ReplyDeletebut no satisfactory cause/effect solution. Sort of a reality conundrum?
"Liquidity Trap" is no longer the term that is used to describe the situation. Economists use the term "Zero Lower Bound" nowadays. During the 2008-09 Great Recession, and for many years after, the Fed lowered its signature interest rate to zero (practically; technically it was something like 0.25%). Yet, the economy continued to be in a morbid, depressed state.
ReplyDeleteAs Keynes saw the situation, and described in his General Theory, easy money policy is effective only if the consequent lowering of the interest rate induces business to invest more. But if business sentiment has dropped below the sea-level, even a 0% interest rate (giving money away for free!) isn't going to work. That, in a nutshell, is the "Liquidity Trap" problem or the "Zero Lower Bound" problem. When all the arrows in the monetary policy quiver are thus exhausted, it is time for the fiscal authority to step in. More government spending, cutting taxes etc. are required to revive the economy.
Hemant -- I believe you're new here. Welcome.
DeleteThank you! I have commented occasionally (two/three times?) before.
Delete(I am an economist by training, although I work as an academic administrator now. Over the last few years -- from 2019 -- I got interested in philosophy, and started reading topics related to that area. That is how I began checking out Jamesian Philosophy Refreshed!