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Michael Lewis' latest I

As I mentioned a few days ago, I have been looking forward to the receipt of Michael Lewis's latest book, on cryptocurrency and the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried. This will be the first in a series of three posts that will discuss passages in the book that stand out for me. None of these posts will constitute a review of the book, nor will they add up to one,  I now have it in my hot little hands. With some synchronicity, SBF took the stand in a courtroom on Thursday, Oct. 26, on his own behalf as a criminal defendant. This already tells you that the trial had not been going his way: defense counsel would have gone to a great deal of trouble to keep him OFF the stand were it not time for a desperate Hail Mary sort of play. But today's task is to quote a passage in the Lewis book about him that stands out. And here is one, from chapter three. Lewis gives an example of what is known in finance as "market making." Market making is not the same as "running an exchang...

A remembrance of Karl Popper

 If you follow the link to which I will send you in a sec, and you scroll down there a bit, you will find near the start of the comments section a memory (from an anonymous source) of Karl Popper at a colloquium. Grunbaum and Popper – Bas van Fraassen's Commonplace Book (wordpress.com) I discovered it accidentally, but I treasure this story.   " As a student in Vienna in the early 1980s, I remember a small conference in honor of the 80th birthday of Popper. The great man was there himself, listening to papers of mostly students. One of the papers defended a sort of cultural conceptual incommensurability, to which Popper only had one brief reply: “Young man, I really want to thank you for your very learned paper. However, I gave seminars where there were people from Africa, the Middle-East, Australia, and South America, and we all understood each other perfectly well. So I don’t know where this incommensurability is supposed to come from.”  

Noah and the Joke

So, then it finally stopped raining, Noah docked the ark, opened it up, and gave the animals a pep talk. They galloped or trotted or otherwise moved in their various ways on their merry ways.    Noah took a final tour of the now mostly abandoned boat. He heard sobbing sounds coming from a corner and found snakes over there.  Noah gave them his pep talk too, and told them it was their time and their duty, to go forth and multiply.  "That's why we're crying." Said a snake.  "We can't multiply.  We're adders." 

News from China: the Country Garden Story

Country Garden, a Chinese property development company, has now defaulted on its bonds.  This is one of the manifestations of a sudden slow-down in China's property sector, one of the country's key sources of wealth creation. The total sales of China's largest 100 property developers were down 29% in September of this year from the same number in September 2022. [That year-on-year figure comes from the China Real Estate Information Corp., a private data provider.] Until a year ago, Country Garden was considered a model developer by the Chinese state authorities.  It was credit worthy in the eyes of state-owned banks and investment worthy in the eyes of those from whom it raised money on the Hong Kong exchange in late 2022. But between the beginning of 2023 and the default in mid-October, the HK listed shares had lost 72 percent of their value. Where is the property development sector in the country headed?  What impact will that have on China's macro picture?  These ...

Good news from SCOTUS

  We had good news from the US Supreme Court recently. It summarily refused to hear a case that seems to have been brought to its attention solely for the purpose of obtaining a reversal of New York Times v. Sullivan.    A coal baron turned politician, Donald Blankenship, took exception to a printed characterization of himself as a felon. He had been convicted, and served time, for a misdemeanor, not a felony.  The characterization is an error, but there is no reason to believe that the error involved "actual malice" in the legal/constitutional sense, and there is no doubt that Blankenship is a public figure. As well as probably the second most blatantly fascistic "Donald" in US public life at the moment.  So, as to Blankenship's efforts to get a defamation trial underway: check mate, right? Well, so one would think. If one were not Blankenship himself, OR someone devoted to the destruction of the Times v. Sullivan rule that has protected publications from preci...

Happy birthday to me

 I am 65 years old today -- officially a "senior."  BTW, I am not receiving social security. This isn't a defiant anarchistic gesture -- I simply am willing to wait the year and two-thirds for the full amount. Anyway, I am likely enjoying a wild time as you read this. Trying to wash down clam dip with wine or something. On the Kantian principle that a human mind and its phenomenal world are mutual creations: happy birthday, world!      Now let me get back for a moment to the Sam Bankman-Fried trial I mentioned last week.  Thinks aren't going well for SBF. Indeed, the picture emerging of his operation makes it all seem positively Madoffian. The Madoff of cryptocurrency : put that on a list of epitaphs no one wants.  That will be enough. Don't want to work too hard.  I have candles to blow out. 

Nobel Prize in Physics 2023

  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/science/nobel-prize-physics.html.  A Nobel Prize was just awarded for the physics of attoseconds. This interests me because it represents an oft unmentioned frontier.  Let me back up a bit. It is natural to think of two opposed frontiers in physics -- the very very big and the very very small. Physicists of one sort, cosmologists, talk about the universe as a whole, how quickly it is expanding, whether there is a possibility the expansion will halt at some point and be followed by retraction, how much "dark matter" it may all contain, and so forth. The very big big picture. Physicists of another sort, particle physicists, talk about the very small, the fundamental particles. The ones we all learned about in elementary school as well a the more exotic creatures like muons.  THOSE are the frontiers of knowledge.  But, and here we arrive at the point, the attosecond work looks at a third frontier, that of really really fast even...