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My Next Book, some thoughts

As some of you may have gathered from my "experiment in chronology" last week, I'm giving a lot of thought to how I will organize my next book.

This is going to be the more scholarly re-working of my last book that I've mentioned both in that book and in some of my responses to critics.

But it won't simply be Gambling with Borrowed Chips with end-notes and a bibliography added. It will be different in important organizational respects.

A narrower chronological focus, in particular. I won't be going back over the Renaissance and Reformation.

I probably won't even be going as far back as 1990, last week's "experiment" notwithstanding. I may start in 1994, when a lot of remarkably pertinent things happened.



The above photo, BTW, is of a 1994 Ford Ranger.

Anyway, my book would distinguish between the big picture items one first thinks of when thinking of a year, and the little pictures. It would discuss the little pictures in four groupings: accounting rules, monetary policy, computerized and high frequency trading, ever more exotic derivatives. Subsidiary theme, housing policy and subsidies.

1994, Big Picture, Nelson Mandela becomes Prez of South Africa, Newt Gingrich becomes Speaker of the House, US.
1994, Little Pictures
          Jan. 1, China devalues the yuan from 5.32 to 8.7 to a US dollar
          Collapse of Askin Capital's Granite funds
          Influential study of NASDAQ spreads by Christie and Schultz
          FASB retreats on the options-expensing rule
          Mexican peso crisis, second Greenspan put
          Throughout this year, and beginning of next, increases of Fed Fund rate, reaching 6%
          American Express spins off Lehman Brothers
          Orange County, CA files for bankruptcy

1995, Big Picture, UN charges Bosnian commanders with crimes against humanity, domestic terrorists bomb the federal building in Oklahoma City.
1995, Little Pictures
          Michael Steinhardt shuts down his HF operations
          In June, Prez Clinton announces a plan to increase home ownership in the US, adding 8 million homeowners over 5 years.
          NSDNET decommissioned, leaving the internet wide open to commercial use
          Over the last five years, the amount of money in 401(k)s has doubled.

1996, Big Picture, Russian President Boris Yeltsin negotiates cease fire with Chechen rebel. IBM creation "Big Blue" defeats chess champion Garry Kasparov.
          Little Pictures, in December Alan Greenspan uses the phrase "irrational exuberance" regarding asset prices.

1998, Big Picture, Suharto forced to resign in Indonesia, financial/currency crisis continue to roil east Asia, Pakistani nuclear tests, Monica Lewinsky scandal dominatges US politics.
          Little Pictures
          LTCM meltdown forces Fed to knock together the heads of counter-parties.
          Richard Fuld barnstorms Lehman's creditors, saving the company in the wake of the LTCM exposure.
1999, Jim Johnson, long Fannie Mac's CEO, retires. Replaced by Franklin Raines.

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