Viktor Orban and the near future of Hungary

Viktor Orban of Hungary has become paradigmatic of a sort of soft dictatorship, maintaining at least some of the mechanisms of an open society, a republic, with one hand but subverting those mechanisms in favor of an illiberal authoritarianism on the other.

When did Orban and his regime earn this paradigmatic status? The key years were 2011-2012. That is when his regime drafted a new constitution behind closed doors, rushed it through parliament in nine days and passed it on a party line. This tailor-made constitution saw a reduction in the number of seats in parliament from 386 to 199.

Orban maintains tight control over this shrunken body. A few years later (2020) he had that parliament vote for a bill that created a state of emergency without a time limit, essentially giving Orban the power to rule without them.

Now, though, there are signs of life in resistance, forming around the figure of a former disciple of Orban, now on the outs largely over the issue of Russian influence: Peter Magyar, shown above. Orban has had to keep his soft dictatorship soft because the country has strong economic incentives for remaining within the EU, and the EU insists on a minimal acceptance of the "rule of law" amongst members.

This means, at a minimum, that there is some limit to the blatancy with which elections can be rigged.

Parliamentary elections scheduled for April 2026 in Hungary may reflect the long build-up of resentments, and the rise of Magyar, with the possibility of a body that would actually push-back. If that is how April goes, we in the US may draw some hope heading toward the following autumn.

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