Hydrocarbons and fertilizer

Beyond the usual concern that the total or partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz drives up the price of the stuff we put in our cars, there is a concern only slowly bubbling to public consciousness -- that it will also drive up the cost of fertilizer and accordingly of food.

The traditional route for the manufacture of fertilizer is through what chemists call the Haber-Bosch process, which makes ammonia, which can be used as a fertilizer in itself or can be combined with other stuff for more elaborate fertilizers.

There has been a lot of talk about moving beyond Haber-Bosch, finding alternative ways of making ammonia and growing the world's food, in part precisely because natural gas is an input, and relatedly because CO₂ is a major byproduct of that process. A move toward alternative processes is a move toward a low or net zero carbon emissions world.

It is certainly possible that even a partial blockage of Hormuz will kick-start the implementation of alternatives.

The alternatives don't have to be invented. They exist, though still as something of a niche. In the green route, electrolysis splits water into hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen is then combined with nitrogen to form ammonia. No carbon is involved, and the only byproduct is oxygen.

Let us hope for the kick-start thing. Then even this war will not have been so ill a wind as to blow NO good.

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